четверг, 19 октября 2017

Национализация Кумтора: популизм или забота о Кыргызстане?

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 20-го марта 2015 года в Кыргызстане прошли общественные слушания по поводу законопроекта о национализации Кумтора. Стоит подчеркнуть, что, на мой взгляд, подобный опыт проведения общественных слушаний малоэффективен по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, этот формат носит необязательный характер, (т.е. проведение подобных мероприятий не подкреплено официальными постановлениями, указами и т.п.). Во-вторых, на подобные мероприятия, к сожалению, не всегда приглашаются профессиональные эксперты, способные объективно оценить ситуацию – государственные служащие, политологи и экономисты. В-третьих, не решен вопрос ответственности. Даже если рекомендации, принятые по итогам общественных слушаний будут приняты, то не понятно, кто будет за них отвечать. Следовательно, если бы вопрос ответственности был закрыт, то приглашенные эксперты в большей степени придерживались взвешенной и объективной аргументации, а не использовали бы предоставленную площадку для собственного пиара, озвучивая популистские предложения. Яростно озвучивались идеи о необходимости национализации рудника, причем последствия такого шага мало кто хотел проанализировать.

Уже налицо результаты. Во-первых, в последние годы в связи с этим скандалом уже изрядно подпорчен имидж Киргизии на международной арене. Во-вторых, страна уже понесла и продолжает нести чуть ли не миллиардные убытки в связи с падением цен на акции, а теперь и в связи с их арестом, не говоря уже о расходах на судебные тяжбы в международных судах. В-третьих, страна уже потеряла потенциальные инвестиции, которые могли бы быть вложены в экономику, если б не было скандала с „Кумтором“. В-четвертых, даже в случае национализации рудника я сильно сомневаюсь в том, что государство может обеспечить работу месторождения собственными усилиями. Кто в случае остановки работы рудника возьмет на себя ответственность? В какой отрасли за годы независимости государство показало себя как эффективный управленец? Ярким примером "эффективного менеджмента" может служить то, в каком сейчас состоянии энеретическая отрасль, погрязшая в коррупцинных схемах и гниющая изнутри. Кризис длится уже несколько лет.

Что касается вопроса необходимости национализации рудника, то с точки зрения государственного управления, международного права оценка однозначна – решение неэффективно. Кыргызстан в нынешних условиях (внешний долг на 2015 год уже более 3 млрд. долларов) не обладает ресурсами для выплаты компенсации и упущеной выгоды инвесторам, а это по разным оценкам, около 3 млрд. долларов. Никто не собирается отменять положение о том, что национализация не може быть осуществлена без выплаты инвестору адекватной компенсации. А с точки зрения общественного мнения, то здесь не все так однозначно. В республике не проводилось исследований общественного мнения по этому вопросу. Но, на мой взгляд, что та часть населения, которая не разбирается в вопросах экономики скорее выступит за национализацию рудника. А те люди, которые более-менее осведомлены в сфере гос.управления и права понимают, что национализация бюджетообразующего предприятия губительна для экономики Кыргызстана.

Кыргызстану, на мой взгляд, необходимо вести диалог в рамках международного права и выучить азы по выстраиванию инвестиционной политики, изучить успешный опыт в выстраивании инвестиционной привлекательности таких стран как, например, Сингапур.

В то время как политические партии зарабатывают себе очки среди широких масс населения во внутренней политике накануне парламенских выборов, страна продолжает погружаться в долги, в пучину международных скандалов, и, как следствие, в экономический кризис с потерей тысяч рабочих мест.

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